It goes down less quickly, but we can see the trend. According to IDC , sales of PCs (desktop, laptop and workstation) and tablets (standalone and detachable) will fall by 2.7% this year compared to 2016. And it’s not over.
“Although this is a slower contraction than the previous year, [we expect] shipments to continue to decline (by 4% year-over-year) in 2018,” he said. the research firm.
Over five years, the trend will result in an overall decline of 2% from 435.1 million units distributed in 2016 to 393.9 million in 2021. But not all segments are affected in the same way. And the appeal of mobile solutions will offset the fall of more traditional models.
Rise of detachable and portable
Notebooks and portable workstations will experience relative stability (+ 0.6% per year on average over the period), from 156.8 million devices to 161.1 million.
But it is especially Microsoft Surface Pro detachable tablets that will rise to the level despite a modest volume.
From 21.5 million tablets to 37.1 million, the segment will enjoy an average annual growth of 11.6%.
“Windows detachable models already account for almost 50 percent of the volume in this category, and this is not expected to change much over the forecast period ,” said Ryan Reith, vice president of the mobile market monitoring program. IDC.
” The Apple iPad Pro range will be 30-35% of the category, the rest being for Google-based devices. It is clear that this is a category that is now attracting investment interest in both OEM PCs and smartphones, but looking at the global personal computing market, it represents only 5% of volume in 2017, up to 9.4% in 2021. “
In other words, it is the needs that are above all professionals that pull the market from the top.
Fall of stand-alone tablets and desktop
The decline of stand-alone tablets (without keyboard) will continue at a rate of 6.7% per year to 108.7 million units against 153.4 million in 2016.
Desktop PCs and “fixed” workstations are no exception to the trend. A decline of 3.4% per year is expected. Distributions will rise from 103.4 million units last year to 87 million in 2021.
“For most of 2017, the traditional PC market has exceeded expectations despite a shortage of key components for laptops and price pressures ,” said Jay Chou, IDC Research Director.
” Shortage issues are expected to decrease by 2018. Despite the decline in aggregate demand, IDC remains optimistic about the continued growth of emerging form factors such as convertibles and ultra-slim notebooks, which once combined, will be the primary form factor for laptops by 2019. “